TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c52…f01f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
21
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.81
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+41.2%+$17.35
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+556.7%+$165.35
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$208.08
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$87.77
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.55
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.9
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+25%+$6.4
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.19
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+35.5%+$290.43
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,688Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+46%+$776.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+63.9%+$11.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ye divorce before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$4.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.