Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89655f46c06c6a7e50610771a7917477fd36ceae3eba8b32f32a2606c9100473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,186 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 3,666$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,622$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 63c | 1,276$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…f01fbacked No | 74c | 1,108$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 69c | 930.53$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.15 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 914.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 44c | 416.04$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed Yes | 37c | 306.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed Yes | 14c | 261.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 229.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 226.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 64c | 146$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 38c | 127.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 20c | 115.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 39c | 111.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 110.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed Yes | 27c | 109.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…964ebacked No | 73c | 101.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…b4a9backed Yes | 56c | 99.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 34c | 66.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0b76backed Yes | 22c | 52.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 45c | 38.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 40c | 31.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…bce5backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 78c | 27.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed No | 79c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5a…e156backed No | 80c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Yes won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.