Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40df1e1b05536c1478ebff5e93061fd32702bd3267c55b82191e6154157b5d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 4,884$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 3c | 3,400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…f01fbacked Yes | 68c | 2,465$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 1,156$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 629.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 4c | 488.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 31c | 444.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 30c | 355.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 31c | 303$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.16 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 75c | 257.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 16c | 221.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed No | 68c | 217.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 34c | 172.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 169$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 30c | 144.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 31c | 127.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 27c | 125.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 67c | 114.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed No | 65c | 106$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 27c | 93.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 22c | 86.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…ea07backed No | 72c | 84.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 58.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0b76backed No | 25c | 58.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 46.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 43.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 65c | 36.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 27.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.