TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$612,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$545,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 576 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c8d…d880backed Yes60c32,839$19,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,800366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No30c16,754$5,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,722.982740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No38c14,874$5,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,292.0725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c14,268$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.336291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes62c14,093$8,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,688.646328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes2c13,418$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.27944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4569…c0d3backed Yes45c13,345$6,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,067.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes59c12,302$7,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,210.811822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes54c11,662$6,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,242.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c10,940$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.692560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes10c10,389$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.3624315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed No9c10,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,119.851711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc7…2035backed Yes58c8,805$5,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,139.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes49c7,712$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.72825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes52c6,694$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.628644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No46c6,580$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes65c5,937$3,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,871.664228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes68c5,708$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,876.613327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes32c4,879$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.66825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5147…c45cbacked Yes59c4,592$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes31c4,114$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.594117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No32c4,019$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,738.336011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No57c3,697$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.586041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes51c3,493$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed No62c3,417$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.541540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c3,387$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.562110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9cc…b2a5backed No12c3,066$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.54825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+81.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked No12c3,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6401717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No24c2,992$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.220418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe0…4c7bbacked No8c2,962$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,712.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes70c2,862$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.031323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a34…4273backed Yes2c2,854$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Yes72c2,798$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.51714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No31c2,794$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.11966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+83.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes34c2,785$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.663627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…6d29backed No44c2,521$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes2c2,453$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Yes43c2,336$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.771241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18c…d678backed Yes67c2,325$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.2460%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No18c2,324$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes9c2,312$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.724531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes54c2,298$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.166428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…db9abacked Yes57c2,061$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed Yes43c2,050$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.981957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes4c1,991$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes41c1,889$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.641233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+199.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b8…079cbacked No27c1,828$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+266.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed No41c1,750$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No47c1,721$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.381957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe27…37febacked No62c1,699$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No40c1,612$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.214045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,499$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.751,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd07b…1898backed Yes75c1,470$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes35c1,468$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3210338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes56c1,433$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes67c1,413$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.526659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8182…1a71backed Yes55c1,409$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes76c1,354$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.954751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes20c1,321$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.927330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4391…61d8backed Yes2c1,300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8133…050bbacked No27c1,285$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+269.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No48c1,282$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…9f94backed Yes10c1,216$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba3…3adfbacked Yes47c1,181$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed No70c1,120$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…d4b6backed Yes6c1,066$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e95…a0e4backed No47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes9c1,058$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.223125.8%8 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8c5…4109backed Yes25c1,045$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260190%0 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes65c1,035$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c48…0d1abacked Yes2c1,020$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d16…0fe0backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1a…a81cbacked No14c1,000$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+242.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06a6…4638backed No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ec…0cf7backed No20c999.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.991136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No61c985.27$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.161866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+97.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6c3a…0a11backed Yes78c965.96$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f7e…8a48backed No25c950$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+96.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf9…c201backed No34c937.49$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+69.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c874.02$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.4972935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x447f…9767backed Yes50c850$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42170%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes2c833$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes12c829.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.462917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No23c827.64$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No79c827.04$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.373455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed No55c818.18$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.181833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No36c797.73$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.465635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87c9…22d8backed No21c796.18$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No47c786$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52cc…4121backed Yes71c752.38$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4508…9134backed No69c721.74$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes53c716.17$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.74520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5025…6581backed No46c705$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+143.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06af…f499backed Yes3c697.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes72c691.02$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee75…88dabacked Yes32c690.56$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.95147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid+50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes29c690.14$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.32616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked No76c661.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e19…7ff6backed No15c653.11$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.67580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+332.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No65c650$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.