AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e27fe0f4593da2eeff2c8c0601909c33dcc8882c71f2c992a4e153ef0781572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $612,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 576 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c8d…d880backed Yes | 60c | 32,839$19,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 30c | 16,754$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,722.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 14,874$5,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,292.07 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 14,268$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.33 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 62c | 14,093$8,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,688.64 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 2c | 13,418$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 45c | 13,345$6,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,067.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 59c | 12,302$7,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,210.81 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 54c | 11,662$6,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,242.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 10,940$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.69 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 10,389$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.36 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed No | 9c | 10,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,119.85 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…2035backed Yes | 58c | 8,805$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,139.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked Yes | 49c | 7,712$3,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,783.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 52c | 6,694$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.62 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 46c | 6,580$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 65c | 5,937$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.66 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 68c | 5,708$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.61 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 32c | 4,879$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…c45cbacked Yes | 59c | 4,592$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 31c | 4,114$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.59 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 32c | 4,019$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738.33 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 57c | 3,697$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.58 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 51c | 3,493$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 62c | 3,417$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 3,387$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…b2a5backed No | 12c | 3,066$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked No | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 2,992$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,260.2 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked No | 8c | 2,962$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed Yes | 70c | 2,862$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…4273backed Yes | 2c | 2,854$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 72c | 2,798$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 31c | 2,794$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 34c | 2,785$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.66 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed No | 44c | 2,521$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 2,453$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 43c | 2,336$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…d678backed Yes | 67c | 2,325$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 18c | 2,324$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 9c | 2,312$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 54c | 2,298$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.16 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…db9abacked Yes | 57c | 2,061$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Yes | 43c | 2,050$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,991$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,889$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…079cbacked No | 27c | 1,828$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +266.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed No | 41c | 1,750$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 47c | 1,721$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…37febacked No | 62c | 1,699$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 40c | 1,612$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,499$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd07b…1898backed Yes | 75c | 1,470$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 35c | 1,468$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.32 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 56c | 1,433$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,413$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.52 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…1a71backed Yes | 55c | 1,409$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 76c | 1,354$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.95 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,321$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…050bbacked No | 27c | 1,285$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +269.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 48c | 1,282$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 10c | 1,216$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…3adfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,181$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed No | 70c | 1,120$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…d4b6backed Yes | 6c | 1,066$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…a0e4backed No | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 9c | 1,058$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 25c | 1,045$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,035$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…0d1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…0fe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +242.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a6…4638backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed No | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 61c | 985.27$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…0a11backed Yes | 78c | 965.96$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed No | 25c | 950$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…c201backed No | 34c | 937.49$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 874.02$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.49 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…9767backed Yes | 50c | 850$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 2c | 833$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 12c | 829.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 23c | 827.64$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 79c | 827.04$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 55c | 818.18$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 36c | 797.73$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.46 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed No | 21c | 796.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 47c | 786$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…4121backed Yes | 71c | 752.38$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…9134backed No | 69c | 721.74$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 53c | 716.17$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…6581backed No | 46c | 705$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…f499backed Yes | 3c | 697.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 72c | 691.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 32c | 690.56$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 29c | 690.14$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked No | 76c | 661.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…7ff6backed No | 15c | 653.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 65c | 650$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.