AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x541ea33998e7cdd6e3ac240de7ffcfb00d549517958d4150880e4ae10727c82c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 26,913$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 21,887$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 1c | 19,218$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 11,663$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Yes | 1c | 11,197$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f44…3ad8backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,889$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 1c | 6,868$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,774$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…b44bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,886$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 1c | 3,811$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…d678backed Yes | 1c | 3,625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 2c | 3,601$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 2,945$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,893$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 2c | 2,550$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244e…da85backed Yes | 1c | 1,904$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…935cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,598$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…b2a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 2c | 1,487$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…e101backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,032$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 1c | 848.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Yes | 1c | 715.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?this page
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.