AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14a5164a7390e4aaf3516ed32476afb1f8b5573e4416cf71bb16ebf48361b6bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $696,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $306,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $696,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 26,490$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 1c | 26,257$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…14c3backed Yes | 1c | 15,247$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 14,245$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.52 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…05cebacked Yes | 1c | 13,317$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 12,773$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Yes | 1c | 8,587$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 6c | 8,336$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.67 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…4d6bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,917$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8f…8bc7backed Yes | 0c | 5,879$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +620.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 1c | 5,256$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…e078backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…3ad5backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,481$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 14c | 3,696$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,499$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,953$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,836$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed Yes | 1c | 2,675$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,647$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 79c | 2,261$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.44 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…c99ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,242$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…a1d1backed Yes | 1c | 2,219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…6950backed Yes | 14c | 2,142$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 1,984$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…145dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,799$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,721$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0034…1767backed Yes | 7c | 1,596$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 9c | 1,374$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,323$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…2833backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 2c | 1,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…8e07backed Yes | 1c | 999.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9c…09ddbacked Yes | 13c | 974.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 839.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…1409backed Yes | 35c | 796.45$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 18c | 792$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…63b8backed Yes | 14c | 706$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2e03backed Yes | 19c | 704.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 3c | 692.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 20c | 660.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 616.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 14c | 607.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 2c | 602.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…5a7bbacked Yes | 4c | 574.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…abdcbacked Yes | 20c | 557$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 444$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 5c | 433$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…543fbacked Yes | 16c | 428.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 7c | 427.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 357$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 347.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf9…f43bbacked Yes | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…16f6backed Yes | 19c | 341.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 8c | 330.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 4c | 328.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 319.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 298.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…f499backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 24c | 265.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 263$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…b0cebacked Yes | 5c | 252.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 13c | 226.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 176.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 12c | 169.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 19c | 117.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…dd00backed Yes | 20c | 102.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…6a25backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 95.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 21c | 67.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…f01fbacked No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.