AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244cfad6c4066323b43140eed3e200b6bb6def5739d9c70206c00485cca82856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $489,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 1c | 39,957$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.32 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 38,686$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.04 | 631 | 1.3%8 W · 623 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 1c | 27,621$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.4 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 1c | 20,529$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 19,889$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 2c | 18,529$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…c419backed Yes | 7c | 15,213$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,344$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Yes | 3c | 9,846$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 8,730$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 8,500$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,767$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,234$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 257 | 0.8%2 W · 255 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244e…da85backed Yes | 1c | 6,902$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…f499backed Yes | 3c | 6,241$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…d678backed Yes | 2c | 5,737$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 0c | 4,603$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 4,196$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…efd1backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d09ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,595$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 3,536$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 212 | 0.9%2 W · 210 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,523$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…7571backed Yes | 2c | 3,418$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132b…be94backed Yes | 1c | 3,154$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…1305backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…bb87backed Yes | 2c | 2,532$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…533fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,470$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…0fe0backed Yes | 0c | 2,425$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 2,398$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,336$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,221$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…4c6dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,826$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 3c | 1,815$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,596$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…4273backed Yes | 1c | 1,547$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…bc47backed Yes | 2c | 1,536$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes | 2c | 1,507$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 2c | 1,254$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 3c | 1,228$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…37fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 3c | 1,137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…4ea7backed Yes | 1c | 1,112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…315fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…a1d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25aa…8208backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…73c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…145dbacked Yes | 3c | 984.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…7714backed Yes | 3c | 933.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 2c | 919.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 3c | 900.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7a…cc34backed Yes | 3c | 836$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…91b1backed Yes | 2c | 835.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…33bdbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…6109backed Yes | 3c | 757.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…18e3backed Yes | 3c | 717.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965e…0062backed Yes | 3c | 689.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…7e27backed Yes | 3c | 687.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 3c | 666.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…5fadbacked Yes | 4c | 557.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…fb70backed Yes | 2c | 500.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…e078backed Yes | 2c | 495$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 3c | 431.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 3c | 398.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 45c | 394.88$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…16dabacked Yes | 3c | 380.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 100.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.