TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Gold missing from Fort Knox?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,518,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,939,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,518,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 548 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes1c600,768$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,075.81837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x447f…9767backed Yes9c332,748$29,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,625.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes1c205,470$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.86825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed Yes19c203,897$38,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,392.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4151…7ae9backed Yes5c65,697$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,958.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c42,244$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.193859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes5c35,822$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.214522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c8…0439backed Yes0c33,966$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3283…1da9backed Yes17c29,136$4,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,835.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3a…6cd3backed Yes18c24,929$4,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,561.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…9031backed Yes0c24,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd7…5f9ebacked Yes20c24,177$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked Yes9c23,181$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.482227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ef…977abacked Yes21c22,759$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes12c20,212$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.336221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes6c20,015$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.898615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes6c18,687$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.4418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes0c16,605$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.83190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2283…0a32backed Yes13c16,277$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b1f…34babacked Yes16c15,898$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-75.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65d0…e6e4backed Yes33c15,124$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes13c14,000$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.335437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes0c10,050$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf3…986ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x408f…f530backed Yes18c9,473$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4c…e22fbacked Yes18c8,838$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes7c8,656$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.5921022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes20c7,158$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9c…38b7backed Yes22c7,040$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed Yes7c6,490$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.671811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb273…c3a9backed Yes16c6,279$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…5f5ebacked Yes5c6,084$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e5…4f9dbacked Yes16c6,052$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb721…d24bbacked Yes0c6,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes17c5,741$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62c3…6e3dbacked Yes18c5,684$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb269…2e0cbacked Yes20c5,639$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713f…9672backed Yes2c5,625$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe40…96eabacked Yes18c5,393$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2c…107ebacked Yes19c5,330$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed Yes19c5,263$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes0c5,141$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.286346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5771…fe1abacked Yes20c5,029$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x369b…7724backed Yes19c5,001$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ab…da59backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-83.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0503727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1503935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.995756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a2…989ebacked Yes21c4,810$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes16c4,561$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No79c4,371$3,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.2721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c2…64f9backed Yes19c4,337$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…46ffbacked Yes22c4,304$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0b…2341backed Yes19c4,289$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Yes19c4,211$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8c…6f8abacked Yes17c4,024$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No79c4,000$3,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.023438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed No78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.992222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68da…ee52backed Yes4c3,911$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.841118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac5a…8695backed Yes18c3,839$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes21c3,697$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.28333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8c…c7ecbacked Yes18c3,523$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a36…2916backed Yes15c3,351$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca52…49e8backed Yes15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7819…eccebacked Yes18c3,325$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b8…c81fbacked Yes10c3,210$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e6…beb9backed Yes16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes11c3,073$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.7221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No79c3,036$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.63441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes17c3,030$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.578231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6303441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes7c2,958$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa454…584fbacked Yes16c2,936$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes19c2,776$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.481323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x084e…b618backed Yes3c2,770$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8279…4018backed Yes22c2,693$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa000…8eddbacked Yes19c2,674$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…5ad1backed Yes19c2,632$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes4c2,580$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.641520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed Yes4c2,550$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…2d5dbacked Yes20c2,537$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No78c2,500$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.510137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d1…1376backed Yes20c2,460$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e4…8766backed Yes10c2,445$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No2c2,384$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.845922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes21c2,381$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8948…28d5backed Yes19c2,380$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.23137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-78.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c6e…6893backed Yes17c2,353$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes5c2,327$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.848453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc6f…fec5backed Yes6c2,300$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3eb…3c47backed Yes15c2,290$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes18c2,222$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c9…832fbacked Yes4c2,137$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,102$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5e4…ad27backed Yes11c2,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2816…b317backed Yes17c2,095$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes18c2,016$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.421910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.