Us Politics · resolved market
35% Canada tariff in effect by August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d16b000528e76159f4071cc4bd5020d885b0b53ff469df1dabe085417caa55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 4,751$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 72c | 1,116$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 52c | 1,056$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.78 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 4c | 798.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 703.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 49c | 646.12$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.06 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 4c | 620.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 609.32$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.01 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed Yes | 31c | 431.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed No | 61c | 409.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a8…e6fdbacked Yes | 38c | 396.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…3480backed No | 67c | 315.5$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 282.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed No | 68c | 275.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…e003backed No | 67c | 267.83$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked No | 60c | 249.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 26c | 193.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 36c | 190.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…1dc2backed Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 9c | 128.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 50c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 15c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 75c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 27c | 74.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…c05cbacked No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 57c | 68.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 59.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 45c | 54.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 64c | 45.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 30c | 43.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 39c | 41.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…7f23backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 57cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…cdf1backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.