NHL · resolved market

Will Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8485952c40fa0c3dce4244f39f82355e08349684883cbf8b1d18acb302207a

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed No	2c	2,116$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	702	49%344 W · 358 L	+14.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd751…742ebacked No	2c	1,145$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Yes	54c	1,116$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.03	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49c2…e298backed No	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7043…a415backed No	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	16c	964.21$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.24	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No	2c	708.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	141	40.4%57 W · 84 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No	4c	610.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.59	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab1…8807backed Yes	78c	504.82$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.45	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	10c	410.21$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.13	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…8dddbacked No	8c	368.2$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	54c	325.08$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.69	201	37.8%76 W · 125 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed No	7c	312.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	189	31.2%59 W · 130 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	18c	193.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.18	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes	73c	158.67$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.34	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes	61c	156.57$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.07	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Yes	73c	151.07$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.32	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8499…83a8backed Yes	73c	145$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.15	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Yes	75c	132.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.86	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Yes	71c	126.17$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.17	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	20c	108.52$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.93	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	30c	107.14$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.21	1,054	42.5%448 W · 606 L	-25.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No	55c	82.65$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.46	111	41.4%46 W · 65 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d1…a451backed Yes	68c	80.95$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.9	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	421	44.4%187 W · 234 L	-28.0wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd2…7f1dbacked Yes	70c	57.14$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No	52c	56.46$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.33	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	26c	55$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.9	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	-7.0wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes	75c	53.83$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.31	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No	24c	51.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	740	54.5%403 W · 337 L	+22.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…e773backed Yes	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No	36c	44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes	47c	43.77$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.02	457	56.2%257 W · 200 L	+19.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffd…c854backed Yes	61c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+64.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…cdf1backed Yes	60c	38.16$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.17	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2d…52d9backed Yes	74c	38$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.02	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5add…9e47backed Yes	72c	30.87$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	65cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87dd…805dbacked Yes	74c	21.67$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e78…c0edbacked Yes	75c	21.39$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.39	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3f…fb85backed Yes	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event