TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7dd2…7f1d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
236
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLBlast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT16948.5%82 W · 87 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 169 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$10.46
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$9.46
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$8.75
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astrosbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.73
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$9.86
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.59
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$10.44
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.21
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$18.13
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$14.73
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.78
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$30.37
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padresbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.12
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+75.5%+$55.25
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationalsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$9.46
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$20.36
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.52
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padresbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+123.1%+$26.33
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$12.59
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.11
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$17.25
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Metsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Showing 25 of 169 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Justin Herbert win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$87.27
Will Jalen Hurts win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$72.38
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.12
Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+69.5%+$6.97
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+233.3%+$933.33
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Lions win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+69.5%+$138.98
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+139.9%+$839.59
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+73.9%+$517.59
Will the Packers win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$400
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$703Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+35.6%+$249.96
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$300
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$10.69
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.82
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+33%+$12.23
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$13.69
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$20.4
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$9.67
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+125%+$34.89
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$13.6
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.93
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.59
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.63
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$281.46
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+127.1%+$24.86
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.56
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.98
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.77
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.98
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+150%+$30
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Knicks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+85.2%+$34.07
All 12 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Mateer win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.