NFL · resolved market
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ac196b2dcfe4c53efa58144b8ecefad133673a219f3f100146b279f1ce20b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853d…e760backed Yes | 2c | 27,494$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 0c | 17,251$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,036$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.48 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 34c | 2,769$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.36 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 67c | 1,002$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…7f1dbacked Yes | 33c | 900$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 4c | 491$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…9848backed Yes | 5c | 487.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 19c | 348.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 8c | 191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 66c | 179.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…245dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC East?this page
- Will the Bills win the AFC East?Yes won
- Will the Jets win the AFC East?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC East?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.