NFL · resolved market
Will the Jets win the AFC East?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb7e5875522e396368ca95aa32970121a8adc24cf7792ba141db57b375bcb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 7c | 6,999$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.1 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 32c | 6,294$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 5c | 4,243$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 40c | 3,494$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.95 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,036$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 69c | 2,614$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.39 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed No | 63c | 2,479$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d55…974fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 37c | 1,533$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.22 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Yes | 34c | 1,232$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.7 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 72c | 1,222$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.72 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…f343backed Yes | 33c | 1,168$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 31c | 1,042$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 6c | 499.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 65c | 487.22$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked No | 62c | 360$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Yes | 12c | 251.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 28c | 222$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 216$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 13c | 191$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…f0afbacked Yes | 36c | 138.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 36c | 83.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 63c | 72.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 36c | 71.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…3c73backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 56c | 50.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…4088backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 70c | 36.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Jets win the AFC East?this page
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC East?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC East?Yes won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC East?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.