NFL · resolved market
Will the Bills win the AFC East?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4affdf8b67fc7cbf24179228e8fa70f238dfdeda36940b5e2e7879fd0216845a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Yes | 68c | 3,239$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.36 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 33c | 2,179$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.29 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed No | 58c | 1,938$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 47c | 900.83$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.35 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 65c | 881$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.65 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 48c | 761.2$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.8 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed Yes | 33c | 753.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.04 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 66c | 674.62$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.25 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 37c | 645$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.42 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 2c | 608.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes | 33c | 573.17$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 33c | 549.92$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 62c | 499$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.45 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 5c | 489.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 34c | 432$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 393.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…92eebacked Yes | 33c | 363.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.64 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…2b79backed No | 51c | 312.55$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 56c | 286$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes | 47c | 263.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 76c | 191$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 33c | 170$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes | 34c | 138.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 209 | 50.7%106 W · 103 L | -15.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…75e4backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…17c7backed Yes | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Yes | 31c | 80.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…5613backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe1…6c97backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bills win the AFC East?this page
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC East?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC East?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC East?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.