NFL · resolved market
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb10542b728f31ee446c8512200f4207b85432381a2ab176254472d1158d6a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 1c | 8,310$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed Yes | 69c | 5,725$3,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 67c | 5,593$3,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.53 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 1c | 5,215$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0274…307bbacked Yes | 71c | 3,518$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.94 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 33c | 3,320$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.6 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 11c | 2,896$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.54 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 27c | 1,500$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.67 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,488$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.01 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 32c | 1,032$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…7f1dbacked Yes | 74c | 952.96$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…2b79backed No | 25c | 644.21$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…bad3backed No | 25c | 603.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked Yes | 78c | 505$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed No | 11c | 490.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 5c | 434$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 30c | 380$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed No | 15c | 360$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 67c | 284.86$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…1179backed No | 31c | 255.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 23c | 226.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…fd95backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…56c2backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 77c | 142.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 69c | 104$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed No | 31c | 103.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 209 | 50.7%106 W · 103 L | -15.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 13c | 90.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…bc56backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…6013backed Yes | 68c | 54.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 76c | 49.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…9a8bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 67c | 26.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.