NFL · resolved market
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d81d55347974169e9f74bb1dac8067b87d9884577bae8ca3b6dc68465122807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 16c | 4,178$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.83 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…6782backed Yes | 6c | 4,032$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 2,005$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,352$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 80c | 1,206$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 20c | 1,107$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 6c | 967.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 20c | 766$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 21c | 470$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 9c | 321.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…aa6ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 260$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…6174backed Yes | 13c | 237.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 9c | 142.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 111.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?Yes won
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.