NFL · resolved market
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9047fec9923b4ec3c969aa7e32cade9cf9d800c3e9f253240d8e3fc759e079b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 2c | 10,930$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.08 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes | 5c | 10,930$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.85 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 5c | 10,930$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.5 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 1c | 6,553$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 3c | 5,148$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…1179backed Yes | 7c | 4,412$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 1c | 3,698$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,087$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 2,761$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 5c | 2,491$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 4c | 2,471$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes | 4c | 1,212$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 3c | 896$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 8c | 403$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…84fbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 7c | 142.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?this page
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?Yes won
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.