TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x647d…5ce1backed Yes44c36,354$15,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,995.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8893…ae72backed No56c36,354$20,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,995.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032f…4679backed Yes44c28,454$12,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,519.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1864…f296backed No56c28,454$15,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,519.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,746$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.245679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes9c4,031$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508729.9%26 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ed…a6c8backed Yes21c2,239$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,233$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6604…8dcfbacked Yes45c2,137$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes10c2,038$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6516226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes9c1,969$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.518428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed No55c1,884$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.65628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes34c1,852$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.8920238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes25c1,794$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.4619638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes14c1,707$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes38c1,667$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.1511547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes27c1,195$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.731926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Yes42c1,030$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.529442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes41c618.37$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6341540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa221…5b1fbacked Yes11c574.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.87647.4%36 W · 40 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes32c500$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.518744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18015746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa472…45aebacked No55c499.97$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.992133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…376ebacked Yes15c456.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa561…36c9backed Yes46c439.13$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick61cpaid-79.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes9c421.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Yes41c402.45$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653727%10 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes23c401$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8313435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes17c382.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7529439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes16c377.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.828337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes6c363$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.765230.8%16 W · 36 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+85.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No55c360.19$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0912842.2%54 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No68c346.49$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.171266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes4c325.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.695824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes45c320$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-87%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1356827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef4…a917backed Yes13c279.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.33622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf67b…3af9backed Yes32c231$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x686b…9ac8backed Yes32c227$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008647.7%41 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc3…34f1backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes22c213.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123023.3%7 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No63c190$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.352828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c7…425abacked Yes33c190$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes46c188.27$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.551,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85c…9c19backed Yes35c187$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037f…ecf9backed Yes34c177$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…dd24backed Yes33c175$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes44c167.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5524351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes12c160.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.622434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9789…2cb7backed Yes7c153.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes16c149.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.258535.3%30 W · 55 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08b6…d88abacked Yes31c148$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes12c144.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.836134.4%21 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e22…d323backed Yes13c143.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes47c142.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9113217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes45c142.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.023447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb457…c3ffbacked Yes33c140$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa76d…c1f4backed Yes30c139.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b1…adccbacked Yes32c136$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x405f…3897backed Yes19c122.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.864040%16 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes14c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a1…895ebacked Yes34c118$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd178…f1f0backed Yes46c113.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf88…39b2backed Yes32c112$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x872f…6c4abacked No68c112$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8f…650abacked Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95ba…ae92backed No55c107.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed No59c101.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.563545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4758…a092backed Yes32c101$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…5a9ebacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015144.4%67 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4617359%102 W · 71 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4493…04fabacked Yes32c98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes45c98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.114532.4%47 W · 98 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76e5…60d9backed Yes46c97.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes13c95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9832347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa97…1a3ebacked Yes33c93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcf…503fbacked Yes36c92.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7278…230dbacked Yes34c92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe1…7e45backed Yes44c91.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-57.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6077…04ddbacked Yes32c89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e4…131ebacked Yes32c88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dc…c0d8backed Yes33c88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes25c87.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.862330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…e9a8backed Yes34c86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No49c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.614712.8%6 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f71…e5ddbacked Yes36c84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…c407backed No68c84$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…c690backed Yes34c82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ac…f052backed No68c78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2502…f0cdbacked Yes33c77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab5…5b32backed Yes34c77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No77c75.27$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.412867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8d…0206backed Yes33c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab2…0bacbacked Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0be…5f08backed No65c74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd831…b0d1backed No68c73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.