NFL · resolved market
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2762fb84cbeb75c3fbeaea2045cfe94b65dfcf1c945e76ebaefce62e211f99ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 51c | 35,083$17,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,976.11 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 46c | 16,498$7,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,931.4 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 49c | 13,533$6,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,923 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 40c | 8,732$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,236.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f33…0d05backed No | 64c | 8,132$5,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,711$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,467$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.87 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 75c | 1,440$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.38 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked No | 45c | 1,113$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 63c | 925$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.12 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 34c | 877$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.32 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 79c | 796.68$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.38 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…fcadbacked Yes | 74c | 784.78$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 60c | 730$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.48 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 54c | 728.77$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.02 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 79c | 630.98$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed No | 19c | 608.04$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.59 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 64c | 500$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 44c | 495$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 77c | 494$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.92 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 21c | 431.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 20c | 410$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 44c | 284$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 34c | 260$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 78c | 241$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.65 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…0b44backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 26c | 221.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 77c | 207.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…dc15backed Yes | 76c | 197.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…8722backed Yes | 66c | 191.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 75c | 175$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 55c | 143.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 51c | 104$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 55c | 101.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 47c | 101$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 100.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…fdcabacked No | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 145 | 32.4%47 W · 98 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…55fcbacked Yes | 60c | 83.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 27c | 78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Yes | 75c | 67.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…cd0bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 28c | 50.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 28c | 50.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 41c | 36.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 23.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc17…5883backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f50…7077backed Yes | 73c | 17.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South?this page
- Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South?Yes won
- Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC South?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.