Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb72593fb2d571e535ba5cf68d0d1198ebd44c6913b05654eac82a486b54cb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 3c | 41,962$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.71 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 41,148$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.91 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…9cfabacked Yes | 4c | 18,916$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 4c | 17,877$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.14 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 3c | 15,741$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.69 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…ad27backed Yes | 4c | 13,013$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 3c | 12,903$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.88 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…1179backed Yes | 4c | 11,470$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 10,446$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.26 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 3c | 9,433$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 3c | 9,135$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.94 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes | 3c | 7,150$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 3c | 7,061$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 3c | 6,325$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74a2…8a37backed Yes | 4c | 5,088$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e95…d070backed Yes | 3c | 5,039$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Yes | 3c | 4,890$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 3c | 3,732$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 3c | 3,560$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 1c | 3,430$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,097$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 4c | 3,056$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…6593backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Yes | 3c | 2,750$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df4…3ffabacked Yes | 3c | 2,569$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,431$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…69c5backed Yes | 4c | 2,357$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,941$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88f…8d2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,746$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8067…7727backed Yes | 3c | 1,717$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,664$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…fce9backed Yes | 2c | 1,606$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,563$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,526$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…7f1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,368$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…50b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,234$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 4c | 1,196$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Yes | 3c | 983.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 3c | 906.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84e…a97cbacked Yes | 3c | 875.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d7…4355backed Yes | 4c | 794.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…5c09backed Yes | 3c | 731$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…6081backed Yes | 3c | 685.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 2c | 665.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 3c | 657.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…bfd4backed Yes | 3c | 638.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…669fbacked Yes | 2c | 629$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes | 4c | 578.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 559.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 4c | 543.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…ebe8backed Yes | 2c | 517$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…6642backed Yes | 3c | 496.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…cd0bbacked Yes | 3c | 470$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ffc8backed Yes | 4c | 457.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…fd87backed Yes | 4c | 454.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 4c | 413.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…f0b2backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 3c | 387.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Yes | 4c | 349.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed Yes | 4c | 285.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?this page
- Will Akron win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Arizona win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Arkansas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will BYU win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Baylor win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Clemson win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Colorado State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Creighton win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Drake win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?Yes won
- Will Georgia win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Gonzaga win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Grand Canyon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will High Point win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Illinois win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Iowa State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Kansas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Liberty win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Lipscomb win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Louisville win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Marquette win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Maryland win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will McNeese win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Memphis win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Michigan win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Mississippi State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Missouri win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Montana win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will New Mexico win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will North Carolina win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Ole Miss win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Omaha win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Purdue win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Robert Morris win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will SIU Edwardsville win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Saint Francis win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Saint Mary's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will St. John's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas A&M win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Troy win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will UC San Diego win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will UCLA win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will UConn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will UNC Wilmington win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Utah State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will VCU win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Vanderbilt win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Wisconsin win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Wofford win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.