TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Arizona win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,542 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d65…3781backed Yes1c23,795$352 inLost-$352.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes1c12,499$137 inLost-$137.49156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-85.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c12,100$149 inLost-$149.5355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Yes2c6,025$108 inLost-$1082416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c5,750$79 inLost-$78.581369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…95a7backed Yes2c5,278$108 inLost-$107.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes3c5,054$146 inLost-$145.589444.7%42 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c6…bbc3backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes2c3,595$58 inLost-$57.725527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes1c3,432$43 inLost-$43.47224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-93.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes1c3,266$36 inLost-$35.73468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes3c3,046$78 inLost-$77.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c2,072$16 inLost-$16.43993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes1c2,000$29 inLost-$28.55350%0 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes3c1,600$49 inLost-$48.84436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Yes2c1,544$25 inLost-$25419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes2c1,382$25 inLost-$24.872334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba3…6593backed Yes2c1,340$20 inLost-$20.160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Yes1c1,198$17 inLost-$173324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost-$205514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,037$14 inLost-$14.2160551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3083…7d86backed Yes1c999.86$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes2c796.56$15 inLost-$14.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes1c747.13$10 inLost-$10.072619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1409…2092backed Yes2c688$17 inLost-$16.51333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes2c625$10 inLost-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-35.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb157…14f5backed Yes3c594$15 inLost-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.