TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Missouri win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,387 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes1c12,548$125 inLost-$12540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Yes2c10,865$172 inLost-$172.18229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd13…a813backed Yes1c7,046$101 inLost-$101.351435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c6…bbc3backed Yes1c7,000$84 inLost-$83.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes1c5,000$52 inLost-$51.98350%0 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes1c4,284$50 inLost-$50166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c3,834$25 inLost-$25.36220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c3,000$24 inLost-$24355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes1c2,486$25 inLost-$25.3810236.3%37 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Yes1c2,417$19 inLost-$18.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes1c1,976$11 inLost-$10.85185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…39f2backed Yes1c1,633$11 inLost-$11.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfea…15ecbacked Yes1c1,627$11 inLost-$11.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c1,279$13 inLost-$13.451369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6f3…bfc1backed Yes1c1,260$10 inLost-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.