TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Arkansas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$299,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,612 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c24,743$53 inLost-$53.1630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa93…df01backed Yes0c23,653$92 inLost-$91.9680%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3dd…edd2backed Yes1c21,734$151 inLost-$151425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes1c19,289$221 inLost-$221.516445.1%74 W · 90 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c13,000$69 inLost-$69355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…cd12backed Yes1c11,085$141 inLost-$140.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c10,809$29 inLost-$29.083993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes0c9,020$31 inLost-$31.08185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes1c7,117$57 inLost-$56.948737.9%33 W · 54 L-12.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes1c6,252$62 inLost-$61.72619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf59b…1cacbacked Yes2c5,912$100 inLost-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes0c5,500$20 inLost-$20.09350%0 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Yes1c5,205$30 inLost-$30229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Yes2c4,020$68 inLost-$67.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+189.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ba3…6593backed Yes1c3,000$24 inLost-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…907abacked Yes1c2,355$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes1c2,141$20 inLost-$19.72468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…64a1backed Yes1c2,017$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8507…8a79backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost-$144932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c1,982$13 inLost-$13.091369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes1c1,971$11 inLost-$11.13224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-93.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb245…5ed6backed Yes1c1,556$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100c…cb81backed Yes1c1,363$11 inLost-$10.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Yes1c1,024$10 inLost-$1017122.8%39 W · 132 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd686…b651backed Yes2c551.87$13 inLost-$13.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.