TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Creighton win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$548,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,976 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0211…8073backed Yes1c67,300$538 inLost-$538.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c12,708$34 inLost-$33.56630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2363…b496backed Yes1c12,500$79 inLost-$78.5380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost-$7030139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$109839.8%39 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a9…b667backed Yes1c7,302$45 inLost-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c7,000$23 inLost-$23355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes1c6,836$73 inLost-$739444.7%42 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91a…a07cbacked Yes1c6,513$60 inLost-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Yes1c5,284$58 inLost-$58.42229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes1c5,000$26 inLost-$26.19350%0 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$207021.4%15 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c4,545$18 inLost-$18.26220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c4,507$20 inLost-$20.213993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x320c…8386backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c2,075$14 inLost-$13.941369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf229…f193backed Yes1c2,022$10 inLost-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8492…cd90backed Yes1c1,964$14 inLost-$13.8450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.