TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Michigan win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$485,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,096 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes1c20,272$196 inLost-$196.476842.6%29 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c18,919$52 inLost-$52.483993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes1c18,511$269 inLost-$268.665527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Yes2c13,829$213 inLost-$213.364746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c10,499$110 inLost-$110.494932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c10,014$99 inLost-$99.14355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes1c9,522$57 inLost-$57.137021.4%15 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes1c7,973$65 inLost-$65.15185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Yes1c7,300$51 inLost-$51.1419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes1c6,250$85 inLost-$85.24350%0 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes1c6,184$66 inLost-$66.01468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed Yes1c5,388$38 inLost-$37.721747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c5,374$16 inLost-$16.12630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5b…1205backed Yes1c4,673$38 inLost-$37.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes2c4,221$100 inLost-$100520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+114.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes1c3,912$43 inLost-$43.35224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-93.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Yes1c3,846$50 inLost-$5020642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Yes2c3,726$57 inLost-$57.49120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes1c3,598$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,943$22 inLost-$22.3229012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb956…c475backed Yes2c2,937$60 inLost-$601414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-73.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ba3…6593backed Yes1c2,500$30 inLost-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,465$13 inLost-$13.03220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d1…0220backed Yes1c2,200$16 inLost-$15.88560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick19cpaid+133.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c1,964$16 inLost-$16.381369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76f…6ad8backed Yes1c1,918$25 inLost-$24.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…2c62backed Yes1c1,855$20 inLost-$19.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e95…a0e4backed Yes1c1,822$16 inLost-$16.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4f…12a3backed Yes2c1,530$35 inLost-$354369.8%30 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed Yes1c1,510$15 inLost-$15.481931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes1c1,473$11 inLost-$11.232152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26f8…64a1backed Yes1c1,423$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes1c1,395$18 inLost-$182619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1036…7defbacked Yes2c1,353$28 inLost-$27.5270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,318$13 inLost-$13.1360551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes1c1,314$16 inLost-$15.771747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfff2…15b9backed Yes1c1,239$11 inLost-$11.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafd…3d81backed Yes1c1,238$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df4…3ffabacked Yes1c1,168$12 inLost-$12.0890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes2c1,148$21 inLost-$20.674436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0764…624bbacked Yes1c1,128$11 inLost-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…11fdbacked Yes1c1,063$12 inLost-$11.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes2c1,002$20 inLost-$202657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0c…4934backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a2…8a37backed Yes2c820.05$14 inLost-$14.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes1c790.27$12 inLost-$11.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…907abacked Yes2c641.41$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.