TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,113 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c30,183$368 inLost-$367.794932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c25,754$204 inLost-$203.57355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes1c19,999$200 inLost-$199.996842.6%29 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes1c12,597$109 inLost-$108.77156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-85.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c10,060$64 inLost-$63.73993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c10,000$137 inLost-$137.0530139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes1c7,827$100 inLost-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes2c7,699$133 inLost-$133.065527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes1c7,363$88 inLost-$88.2910236.3%37 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…42c1backed Yes3c6,787$202 inLost-$202616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes1c6,250$87 inLost-$86.72350%0 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Yes1c6,115$88 inLost-$87.89229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…64a1backed Yes2c5,040$77 inLost-$77714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes1c4,996$60 inLost-$60.38185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c4,017$46 inLost-$46.441369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes4c3,500$140 inLost-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes2c3,418$62 inLost-$6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes1c2,886$38 inLost-$37.7468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes2c2,796$59 inLost-$58.728151.9%42 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63a6…c8e7backed Yes2c1,552$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Yes1c1,546$20 inLost-$20120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf0c…6565backed Yes1c1,376$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes4c1,100$42 inLost-$42.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes4c1,013$40 inLost-$4018129.3%53 W · 128 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes2c669.9$11 inLost-$10.923619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Yes2c576$12 inLost-$123324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e6…1c52backed Yes5c400$20 inLost-$209658.3%56 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.