TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will St. John's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,646 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2a2…8471backed Yes2c57,000$1,311 inLost-$1,31140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66af…d58ebacked Yes8c19,416$1,500 inLost-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3dd…edd2backed Yes4c12,224$500 inLost-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes3c10,943$283 inLost-$282.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes4c10,839$443 inLost-$443.235527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Yes3c10,234$294 inLost-$294.05229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes3c6,300$198 inLost-$198.110236.3%37 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa2…a2fcbacked Yes4c5,669$200 inLost-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes3c5,000$140 inLost-$1407021.4%15 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d3…6248backed Yes4c3,986$148 inLost-$14810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a4…ebc9backed Yes3c3,321$100 inLost-$100.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91a…a07cbacked Yes4c3,131$120 inLost-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes3c3,000$96 inLost-$96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes3c3,000$98 inLost-$97.99355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes3c2,826$94 inLost-$94.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes4c2,817$102 inLost-$102.282,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes3c2,502$83 inLost-$82.74045%18 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes4c2,500$100 inLost-$100.276127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc169…4e72backed Yes3c2,206$74 inLost-$7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes3c2,147$75 inLost-$752128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes3c1,570$45 inLost-$44.61369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd026…1245backed Yes4c1,392$50 inLost-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes3c1,371$46 inLost-$45.66468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,263$39 inLost-$38.6229012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…50b7backed Yes3c1,205$40 inLost-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…b667backed Yes4c1,096$40 inLost-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad1…cb3cbacked Yes4c1,080$40 inLost-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d7…4355backed Yes4c1,008$40 inLost-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed Yes4c1,000$42 inLost-$42119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-86.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes4c988.19$35 inLost-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes3c950$28 inLost-$28.353993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Yes4c865.64$32 inLost-$32419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2654…fd65backed Yes4c699.99$31 inLost-$31.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes4c669.9$30 inLost-$305514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Yes3c615$18 inLost-$18.456446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes3c613.72$20 inLost-$205745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked No60c554.69$334 inWon+$220.21850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+629.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe04…9a42backed Yes4c530.04$20 inLost-$201225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9339…39b0backed Yes3c522.06$18 inLost-$17.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes2c488$10 inLost-$10.32220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc269…81ffbacked Yes2c458$11 inLost-$10.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e6…1c52backed Yes4c444.44$20 inLost-$209658.3%56 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes3c416.79$13 inLost-$13.221225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes3c400$13 inLost-$13.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…02cfbacked Yes4c300$11 inLost-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes3c292.86$10 inLost-$10.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.