TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Iowa State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,960 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes2c21,446$518 inLost-$517.68156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-85.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c12,001$72 inLost-$72355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes2c10,059$201 inLost-$201.196842.6%29 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes1c8,007$116 inLost-$116.024932.7%16 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes3c8,000$220 inLost-$219.966127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes2c4,666$100 inLost-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes3c2,298$72 inLost-$71.95527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes2c2,028$48 inLost-$47.982334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost-$1008151.9%42 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Yes2c2,000$48 inLost-$4814339.9%57 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84e9…2285backed Yes2c1,815$37 inLost-$37.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes3c1,644$42 inLost-$42.341369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a5e…07fabacked Yes2c1,597$35 inLost-$35.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes7c1,452$102 inLost-$101.679444.7%42 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes2c1,451$28 inLost-$27.71468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes2c1,270$26 inLost-$25.8185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc4…5ab7backed Yes2c1,000$21 inLost-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56f…3914backed Yes2c961.48$23 inLost-$22.921070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+51.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Yes1c881.69$13 inLost-$12.982560%15 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf0c…6565backed Yes2c865$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes2c757.58$18 inLost-$182619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes2c750$18 inLost-$18.0870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Yes3c727.59$21 inLost-$21.09419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3541…c96dbacked Yes8c614.14$50 inLost-$50825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes3c592.05$20 inLost-$205745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e6…1c52backed Yes7c367.86$27 inLost-$279658.3%56 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe380…d91bbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes7c221.67$16 inLost-$15.528232.9%27 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 62. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.