TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c63…8974

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
123
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$200
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$62.75
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.3%+$144.45
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$155
Big Game: Coin Tossbacked Tails · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$49.1
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+78.6%+$189.2
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$83.96
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$175
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$278.81
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$186.29
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+88.7%+$86.95
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$133
Spread: Ravens (-7.5)backed Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)backed Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Spread: Steelers (-5.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+92.3%+$72
Spread: Texans (-7.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$72
Commanders vs. Dolphinsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+69.5%+$205.06
Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Bears (-3.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+81.8%+$90
Spread: Colts (-6.5)backed Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Spread: Broncos (-8.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$204
Panthers vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Scorigami in NFL Week 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$201
Will the NFL ban the Tush Push?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+50.6%+$74.3
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$99.37
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcatsbacked Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$50.16
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$775Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$218.68
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Northwestern Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$212
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Pittsburgh Panthersbacked Pittsburgh Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+92.3%+$96
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+337.4%+$1,157.07
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will a #1 seed win the NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+44%+$252.01
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$470
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.26
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.39
Will Michigan win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.72
Will a #1 seed lose in the Sweet 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$153.6
Will Gonzaga win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.46
UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Techbacked UNC Wilmington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.4
Yale vs. Texas A&Mbacked Yale · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.8
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.31
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+85.2%+$46
Pacers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+53.8%+$35
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+92.3%+$48
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$390
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$186
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.65
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$486
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Warriors (To Advance)backed Twolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$170
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Warriors (To Advance)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$190
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$156
NBA Playoffs: Pacers vs. Bucks (To Advance)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.34
All 16 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+53.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+217.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$788Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+534.9%+$4,212.5
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$650
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$652Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+26.5%+$173.02
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$38.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$87.26
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$189.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+156.4%+$176.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+117.4%+$151.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$998Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+53.5%+$533.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$28.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$275
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.