Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will a #1 seed lose in the Sweet 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8319ac1cabe258cbd9681c29a6ff91ed325269d0fb5d4097bf19d6d4314a7d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 69c | 9,175$6,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,321.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 6,577$4,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,261.28 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 32c | 2,363$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.29 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 67c | 1,800$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 31c | 1,222$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 66c | 897.91$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.98 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 30c | 795.05$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.54 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 36c | 780.56$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 45c | 689$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 55c | 689$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.95 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 51c | 600$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 34c | 511$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.26 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddf…0192backed No | 35c | 500.05$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 33c | 403.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.49 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 36c | 303$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…e22fbacked Yes | 67c | 295.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 66c | 249.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed No | 36c | 240$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…ca2bbacked Yes | 67c | 204.48$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 64c | 194$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 35c | 171.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 66c | 111$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 65c | 102.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 33c | 95.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…62efbacked Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786a…12bfbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.