NFL · resolved market
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e7d5061ce008c5e820ecccc1a707a8797f61c7fd4e13e8733603e832d1f828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 41c | 5,108$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.59 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 20c | 4,300$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…43c6backed Yes | 20c | 2,455$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 2,187$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.91 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 43c | 1,497$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.55 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…5c3cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,362$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Yes | 16c | 1,139$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.29 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Yes | 19c | 1,088$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 62c | 979$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.31 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 872.87$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.11 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 799.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes | 79c | 745.69$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 20c | 701.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 46c | 668.23$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.31 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Yes | 20c | 640.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8155…b4fabacked Yes | 20c | 505.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…9b0fbacked Yes | 17c | 500.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…abc6backed Yes | 19c | 468.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed No | 62c | 400$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed Yes | 19c | 400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 72c | 374.25$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 47c | 328.12$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 64c | 301.19$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 22c | 273.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.72 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 51c | 219.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 50c | 219.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…5266backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 65c | 173.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed No | 61c | 164.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 65c | 154.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 141.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8357…2946backed No | 33c | 121.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed Yes | 49c | 112.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Yes | 49c | 112.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…0d8fbacked Yes | 49c | 112.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Yes | 50c | 111.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…767ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…93ecbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…bbe5backed Yes | 19c | 99.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 88.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…20ebbacked No | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…1e66backed No | 32c | 67.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Yes | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked Yes | 62c | 59.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed No | 41c | 49.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…58d7backed Yes | 46c | 41.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…93d5backed No | 28c | 37.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked No | 54c | 33.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…a1cfbacked Yes | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…8979backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Carolina Panthers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Chicago Bears make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Texans make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Miami Dolphins make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Minnesota Vikings make the playoffs?No won
- Will the New England Patriots make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the New Orleans Saints make the playoffs?No won
- Will the New York Giants make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Washington Commanders make the playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.