NFL · resolved market
Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1d5ce7469a19cbb1e1980ed3eb35bd45f140b1a073ebe421c7059a5fbd1703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,086$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 37c | 5,667$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.99 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 27c | 2,932$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.68 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 46c | 2,738$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.2 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,626$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 35c | 1,535$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 42c | 1,398$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.64 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 699.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.42 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 47c | 589.71$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes | 8c | 584.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 312.66$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 35c | 293.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 38c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…c53fbacked Yes | 38c | 237.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 52c | 168$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…f3b1backed Yes | 37c | 163$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…f3b5backed Yes | 35c | 157$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…abd0backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…170cbacked Yes | 67c | 135.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 34c | 131.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…0d8fbacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Yes | 51c | 107.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…9a2ebacked Yes | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…da1abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 77.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 73.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…767ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…2641backed Yes | 34c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…fd53backed No | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed No | 34c | 59.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1662…c4e1backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afc…e0f5backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…d803backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…6376backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…769cbacked No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 60c | 53.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 47c | 52.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…b087backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…5698backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…a9eabacked No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…f153backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…1a89backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb332…c6dabacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cb…e6b8backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 63c | 40.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…8808backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 57c | 38.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…a2e4backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…4176backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…2226backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 32.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2122backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71b…13e5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…ab08backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…ea65backed Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…c336backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Carolina Panthers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Chicago Bears make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Texans make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Miami Dolphins make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Minnesota Vikings make the playoffs?No won
- Will the New England Patriots make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the New Orleans Saints make the playoffs?No won
- Will the New York Giants make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Washington Commanders make the playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.