NFL · resolved market
Will the Chicago Bears make the playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8595fd57b8c332261274d8365ec1901b3b8744d0a1c32688a2d3c0bd203ff1c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 47c | 5,750$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677.98 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 41c | 2,460$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…cf09backed Yes | 79c | 1,154$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…3776backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed No | 41c | 647.42$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.64 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…7ba5backed Yes | 79c | 646.33$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…4b6ebacked Yes | 79c | 500$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes | 34c | 438.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 55c | 300$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 24c | 293.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 20c | 278.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 21c | 213$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…b944backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 183.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 171.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 42c | 136.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 121.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed No | 33c | 105.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 61c | 99.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…0d8fbacked No | 37c | 91.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 59c | 90.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 284 | 51.8%147 W · 137 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…c844backed Yes | 64c | 78.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 62c | 75.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbd…a60abacked Yes | 39c | 71.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 44.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 568 | 9.9%56 W · 512 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed No | 36c | 32.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4613…0845backed Yes | 68c | 31.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed No | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed Yes | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chicago Bears make the playoffs?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Carolina Panthers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Texans make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Miami Dolphins make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Minnesota Vikings make the playoffs?No won
- Will the New England Patriots make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the New Orleans Saints make the playoffs?No won
- Will the New York Giants make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?No won
- Will the Washington Commanders make the playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.