TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raidersof Broncos, Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,852,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,866,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,852,065 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x423e…77e9backed Broncos54c591,546$319,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319,472.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Broncos53c573,926$304,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304,180.768344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Raiders47c501,212$235,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265,642.1117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raiders49c279,460$137,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,751.386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Raiders46c238,071$108,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,435.8925956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Raiders50c136,135$68,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,110.6211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raiders46c99,327$45,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,391.111,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raiders48c63,236$30,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,115.0624957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Broncos51c51,431$26,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,229.8916836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Raiders46c50,563$23,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,304.6361148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Broncos50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0002133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Broncos50c44,640$22,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,320.075855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raiders46c40,000$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,60011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Broncos51c38,725$19,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,749.751968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Broncos52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,60013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8525…f152backed Broncos51c26,000$13,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,26020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Broncos51c24,701$12,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,597.4119645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Broncos51c23,529$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Raiders49c22,380$11,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,304.96100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Broncos50c20,381$10,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,192.1931350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Raiders49c19,472$9,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,891.6624056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Raiders50c19,425$9,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,712.3322450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Broncos51c17,678$9,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,015.757051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7189…b454backed Raiders47c17,500$8,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2755764.9%37 W · 20 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Raiders47c15,000$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,95014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Raiders49c14,061$6,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,171.1619553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos40c12,341$4,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,937.8560049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Broncos50c10,723$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.8533553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Broncos52c10,390$5,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.5818140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Raiders50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Broncos51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.243351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Raiders47c8,004$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,202.9683447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Broncos50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Broncos51c7,843$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0007255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Broncos51c7,000$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos49c6,520$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.745152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Broncos51c6,000$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05718044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders46c5,158$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.5337350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Broncos52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raiders46c4,718$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,532.9339754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raiders51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Broncos51c3,882$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9804252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Broncos52c3,654$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9005358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos50c3,476$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.9683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Raiders48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5605248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raiders47c2,977$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.0254451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Broncos51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Broncos51c2,939$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.459855.1%54 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders47c2,712$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.1877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raiders47c2,252$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.7265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Broncos51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0207732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Broncos51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0206045%27 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Broncos51c1,965$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Raiders50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70016344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Broncos51c1,371$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.23520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders46c1,367$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.81,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Broncos51c1,250$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.528556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d6…3eeebacked Broncos51c1,137$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Raiders46c1,085$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.8536826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Raiders47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.832360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Broncos50c1,038$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.341248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Broncos51c1,022$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5215754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Raiders47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Raiders50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50011547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Broncos50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Broncos51c997.94$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.9514344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Broncos51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Broncos53c945.17$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Raiders47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.062152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Raiders48c806.25$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.258839.8%35 W · 53 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Raiders50c804$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4042245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Raiders46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43224456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2002…de36backed Broncos51c764.71$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Broncos50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Raiders46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32427633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Broncos50c598.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Raiders51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Raiders50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2507150.7%36 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c61…5213backed Broncos54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Raiders47c446.81$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.8128047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Broncos51c431.71$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2227751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ee…9b19backed Broncos50c429.06$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.531266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+57.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed Broncos51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…3e9fbacked Raiders47c400$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2132835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2816…0730backed Raiders47c400$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2132934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9b…d771backed Broncos11c400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425626.8%15 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4702…457fbacked Raiders49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2043542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Raiders50c394$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1973560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Broncos51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Broncos51c380$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.85448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Raiders49c360$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.623647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8159…8d5cbacked Raiders50c313.87$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.878043.8%35 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Broncos44c304.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.318744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Raiders50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Raiders47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15926648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Raiders48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1567057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad0…3339backed Broncos51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Broncos52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Broncos54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506050%30 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.