TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Over49c32,061$15,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,719.4786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Under51c28,850$14,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,136.52065%13 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Over50c28,837$14,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,418.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Under50c18,263$9,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,117.1647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Over50c10,493$5,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,246.517454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x905e…0adebacked Over51c8,127$4,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,144.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Under50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0002920.7%6 W · 23 L-8.5wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xfd36…1138backed Over51c7,920$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Over52c6,001$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.725756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Under51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45010639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Under51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4508845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Over49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…a9f3backed Under49c4,721$2,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Under51c4,500$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20525744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf146…a957backed Under49c4,371$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under49c4,033$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05724957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Over50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Over51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0405442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36041947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c3,641$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.211,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa412…25bdbacked Under49c3,516$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under49c3,386$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.9583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Over49c3,130$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.0133553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa025…e693backed Under49c2,945$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Under48c2,880$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.745850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over49c2,187$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.4777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9804542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Under50c1,883$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.514248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over49c1,779$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.9731450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under50c1,632$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.1134349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Under49c1,050$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.536246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50030446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5009444.7%42 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Under50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40011156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30017251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc7…cf77backed Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3008144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over51c560$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.63852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc557…e530backed Under51c545.8$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.443354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb6…9aabbacked Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24539242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed3…bffcbacked Over51c425.49$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2171747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over51c422$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2222950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20016351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf068…6184backed Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.623366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37d1…0c60backed Under51c384.12$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under50c324.43$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.631350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504949%24 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505844.8%26 W · 32 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Over52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under50c280$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ac…14d1backed Under49c254$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Under50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1256752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Under50c248.25$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1318156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04ba…c2a0backed Under49c240$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e5…5505backed Under49c215$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Over53c213.21$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11311547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6b…fd54backed Under49c209$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b85…300fbacked Under49c209$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.59475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Over50c208.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6641248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e45…49c6backed Under49c207$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5122…3ba9backed Over51c204$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.04450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb33…c64bbacked Over51c201$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+175.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb58e…69e4backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x805e…e345backed Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b9…9ce4backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008639.5%34 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10231540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e57…47a7backed Over51c197$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbecd…9df4backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0814347.6%68 W · 75 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6262…8c43backed Under49c196$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…b456backed Under49c194$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Over52c194$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8820851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c45…de15backed Under49c194$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096c…0e66backed Over51c193$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef24…8273backed Under49c188$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b3…4e42backed Under49c188$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c187$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.539447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a7…cd16backed Over51c187$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3221…4e49backed Over51c186$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea1…f41dbacked Over51c183$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b74…abdcbacked Under49c182$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4308…9d1cbacked Over51c180$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf61…93b8backed Over51c180$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c9…01c9backed Under49c176$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.76580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+221.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd03f…11debacked Over51c173$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.23425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4319…ef66backed Over50c170$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2783…f64bbacked Over51c165$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Under50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803023.3%7 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under48c142$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.849855.1%54 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under48c142$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over52c141$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7320238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Under50c128.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.976659.1%39 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Under49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.459348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed Over50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016243.8%71 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd73…3cc4backed Under49c101.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.512657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5012843%55 W · 73 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4926857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.