NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d439fb35579f5d2e2f848008f7e40f75f734a656f169937abf43028b1fa8d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Over | 53c | 18,974$10,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,056.05 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 47c | 7,858$3,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.62 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 3,216$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.27 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,170$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.3 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Over | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.99 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 1,695$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.87 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 53c | 1,548$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.18 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Over | 53c | 471.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 47c | 395.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Under | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 46c | 308.61$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 56c | 178.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 52c | 177.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…0183backed Under | 45c | 174$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Under | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872f…6a25backed Over | 55c | 165$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Under | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 129.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Over | 55c | 105.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 43c | 98.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed Over | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 53c | 27.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Over | 53c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Raiders won
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-10.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-9.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.