NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc3ad64f3eeead0a431573abdc6b5ac4a033ef956a30281f14cf61e307eba872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 676.24$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.78 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 49c | 549$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.01 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 50c | 230.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…b79cbacked Over | 49c | 213$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…ddb9backed Over | 49c | 203$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd017…a1e7backed Over | 49c | 203$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b6…ee42backed Under | 51c | 199$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…4adebacked Over | 49c | 194$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…3f80backed Under | 51c | 190$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…4e42backed Over | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5122…3ba9backed Under | 51c | 188$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…8b3ebacked Over | 49c | 188$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…64d5backed Over | 51c | 186$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c9…01c9backed Under | 51c | 182$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd03f…11debacked Over | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…64f7backed Under | 51c | 179$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…4e24backed Over | 48c | 178$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…5505backed Over | 49c | 178$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…d96abacked Over | 51c | 178$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…f64bbacked Under | 51c | 177$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…ee4abacked Under | 51c | 176$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…b040backed Under | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…300fbacked Under | 51c | 169$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…5c57backed Under | 51c | 165$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b895backed Under | 52c | 163$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…d8b3backed Over | 51c | 116.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 49c | 112.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 52c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Raiders won
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-10.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-9.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.