NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba0b5e396aeec1fbd46273fe148047e261f8c0353b138198cddc0a0d99c5a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Broncos, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,072,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,075,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,072,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Broncos | 46c | 999,999$460,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459,999.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Raiders | 54c | 993,206$536,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456,874.7 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Broncos | 45c | 11,889$5,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,395.13 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Raiders | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,299.99 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos | 43c | 7,500$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Raiders | 56c | 6,071$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,671.43 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Raiders | 57c | 5,764$3,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.64 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Raiders | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Raiders | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Broncos | 45c | 4,330$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Raiders | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raiders | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Raiders | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Broncos | 43c | 1,988$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.81 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Raiders | 56c | 1,703$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.5 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Raiders | 56c | 1,539$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.75 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos | 44c | 1,250$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Raiders | 55c | 1,248$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.48 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Broncos | 44c | 1,162$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.49 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Raiders | 57c | 1,005$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.23 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Raiders | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Broncos | 42c | 998.78$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.49 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 56c | 961.91$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.53 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Broncos | 44c | 811$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.84 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Raiders | 56c | 720$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Raiders | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Broncos | 43c | 594.03$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.43 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…c72dbacked Broncos | 44c | 501.51$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Raiders | 58c | 407.62$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Raiders | 58c | 393$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Raiders | 57c | 380.7$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed Raiders | 58c | 344.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Raiders | 57c | 328.78$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Raiders | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Raiders | 55c | 277.82$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Raiders | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Raiders | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…fa5ebacked Raiders | 55c | 232.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…67cabacked Broncos | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Raiders | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Broncos | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…b7fdbacked Broncos | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…5c57backed Broncos | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Raiders | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Raiders | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…1a4ebacked Raiders | 55c | 177$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4308…9d1cbacked Broncos | 45c | 172$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…b79cbacked Raiders | 55c | 171$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…0fc9backed Broncos | 45c | 170$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…c64bbacked Broncos | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c9…01c9backed Broncos | 45c | 169$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…300fbacked Raiders | 55c | 163$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…ddb9backed Raiders | 55c | 161$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b6…ee42backed Raiders | 55c | 161$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…1d8ebacked Raiders | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Raiders | 56c | 102.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Raiders | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Broncos | 43c | 92.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6eb…7b17backed Raiders | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…d61cbacked Raiders | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Raiders | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Raiders | 56c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Raiders | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Broncos | 46c | 47.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Raiders | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5e…ff8fbacked Raiders | 55c | 34.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Raiders | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Raiders | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Broncos | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Raiders | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…3d98backed Raiders | 56c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0163…9aa0backed Raiders | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…b347backed Raiders | 58c | 17.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Raiders won
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-9.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.