NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d04931989646dbd2f343ace77e169d9df9a9c5e9d82dc850faf851df538581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Broncos, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos | 44c | 746$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.24 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 55c | 642.72$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.03 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1a…3a29backed Broncos | 47c | 207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…4e49backed Broncos | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f37…b87ebacked Broncos | 47c | 203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…8bc4backed Raiders | 53c | 202$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…d96abacked Broncos | 48c | 201$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…c511backed Broncos | 47c | 198$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99d…3e32backed Raiders | 53c | 196$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…3f80backed Raiders | 53c | 194$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…4e24backed Raiders | 53c | 192$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…abdcbacked Raiders | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…b456backed Broncos | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…ddb9backed Broncos | 48c | 188$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872f…6a25backed Broncos | 47c | 188$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…8d03backed Broncos | 47c | 186$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…b7fdbacked Broncos | 48c | 186$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5122…3ba9backed Broncos | 48c | 186$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…de15backed Broncos | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…0183backed Raiders | 53c | 181$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…4adebacked Raiders | 53c | 178$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…4e42backed Raiders | 52c | 177$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03f…11debacked Raiders | 52c | 176$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…fd54backed Broncos | 47c | 175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…cd16backed Broncos | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…b040backed Raiders | 53c | 175$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…8c43backed Broncos | 48c | 173$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…0fc9backed Raiders | 52c | 173$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…b79cbacked Raiders | 52c | 171$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…64d5backed Broncos | 47c | 171$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e45…49c6backed Raiders | 53c | 169$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…f41dbacked Raiders | 52c | 163$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096c…0e66backed Raiders | 53c | 161$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…c64bbacked Raiders | 52c | 161$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…aa38backed Broncos | 46c | 63.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Raiders | 54c | 56.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Raiders | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Raiders | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Raiders | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-10.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Broncos (-9.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.