TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raidersof Broncos, Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$794,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$794,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $794,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Broncos49c582,210$285,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285,283.053348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Raiders51c500,541$255,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245,264.911145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Broncos49c96,005$46,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,853.7331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raiders51c78,806$40,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,615.586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Raiders52c56,678$29,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,038.8516051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Raiders51c40,454$20,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,822.3419553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7189…b454backed Raiders51c36,848$18,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,907.925764.9%37 W · 20 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Raiders51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80017454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Broncos48c15,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20022450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos47c14,990$7,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,045.295152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Broncos50c12,796$6,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,392.952540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Broncos47c11,672$5,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,485.8911445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos48c8,200$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,93628447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Raiders53c6,604$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.7714252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Raiders50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5008845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Raiders51c4,452$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.3633553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Broncos50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos47c3,499$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.551,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Raiders52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.997153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Raiders51c2,942$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4429855.1%54 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Raiders52c2,130$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.452050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Raiders52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0414035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Broncos48c1,900$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91212944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos50c1,735$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.8377052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Raiders51c1,483$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.9731350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Broncos48c1,394$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.5912352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Broncos48c1,210$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.1965048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ae…84cebacked Raiders52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Raiders50c1,152$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.125956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a2…1aabbacked Broncos49c1,071$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.89922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Broncos48c1,009$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.1583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Broncos50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002540%10 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Broncos50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…ed90backed Broncos50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88c7…9012backed Raiders52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Broncos47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Broncos49c900$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.995550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Broncos49c857.14$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42012343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Raiders51c790$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.110467.3%70 W · 34 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Raiders53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.723560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31cd…cecabacked Broncos49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos48c546.88$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.51,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked Broncos49c445.17$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203650%18 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Raiders53c442$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7422950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Raiders52c417.31$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.316333.3%21 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Raiders51c399.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19626648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc774…3d3ebacked Raiders52c370.33$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.761346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Broncos49c308.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014337.8%54 W · 89 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Raiders52c307.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8430442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Broncos49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f36…f27abacked Broncos49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raiders50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15039447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Broncos49c244.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Broncos49c228.57$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161c…3b03backed Broncos50c218.36$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.185756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Raiders52c210$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Broncos48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Raiders52c202.26$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0816551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Broncos50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-58.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Raiders51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9810948.6%53 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Broncos48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9631540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Raiders51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0816351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Broncos49c192.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0141248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953d…c08fbacked Broncos49c191.47$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Raiders53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.685444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e0…1e92backed Raiders51c175$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3444…9e11backed Broncos50c175$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Broncos48c163.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4836341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefcf…2a46backed Broncos50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f78…31a4backed Raiders53c140.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.941850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ca…2c36backed Raiders51c125.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.491369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Broncos48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502035%7 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82b5…1d1dbacked Broncos48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Broncos49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Broncos49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022053.2%117 W · 103 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8b…8923backed Broncos49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Broncos50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010454.8%57 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Raiders51c98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.029654.2%52 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeef…b62ebacked Raiders51c88.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked Broncos48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Broncos51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6269…327cbacked Broncos49c72.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb9d…b033backed Raiders51c70.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.793447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9d…3ea9backed Broncos50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526660.9%162 W · 104 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Raiders53c56.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.916162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f4…8de1backed Raiders52c55.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c29…0355backed Raiders52c55.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25b0…94ebbacked Raiders51c52.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.944660.9%28 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e30…9dadbacked Broncos49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Raiders51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.524243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82fd…4533backed Broncos48c47.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Broncos49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017548%84 W · 91 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e3…dda0backed Broncos49c40.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Raiders52c40.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.388052.5%42 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Broncos50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-60%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Raiders52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.28557.6%49 W · 36 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Raiders51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2216048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Raiders51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2219844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed57…e0a0backed Raiders52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.467955.7%44 W · 35 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Raiders52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.