NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0fa82b6ef394b9dd7565dd337479b89f772ae2814555846ff1b77f4d822bc79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Texans, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e2…ab89backed Texans | 40c | 14,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texans | 34c | 13,730$4,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,691.68 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Titans | 66c | 13,315$8,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.7 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38a…aff3backed Titans | 60c | 7,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Titans | 60c | 7,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Titans | 61c | 1,406$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.26 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…e4c8backed Texans | 41c | 1,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Titans | 59c | 851.97$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.59 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Titans | 52c | 799.94$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.97 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Texans | 40c | 798$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Titans | 61c | 440$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Texans | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Titans | 60c | 382.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Texans | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Texans | 48c | 291.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Titans | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Titans | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Texans | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texans | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Texans | 39c | 133.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Titans | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Titans | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Titans | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Titans | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Texans | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Titans | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texans | 45c | 68.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Titans | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Titans | 53c | 59.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe7…5fb9backed Texans | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Texans | 47c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Texans | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Titans | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Texans | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Texans | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Titans | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Texans | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…f39bbacked Texans | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Titans | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Titans | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Titans | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Titans | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Texans (-5.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-8.5)Titans won
- Texans vs. TitansTexans won
- Texans vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineTitans won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 37.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.