NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13dbc0ff21efc8e8a242a66b80ce479015b852d45e799b692bc225913648592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Texans, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Titans | 51c | 28,000$14,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,719.99 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans | 49c | 24,174$11,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,845.29 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Titans | 50c | 22,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Texans | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Titans | 51c | 11,054$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,454.49 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Titans | 49c | 10,475$5,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,372.41 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Texans | 51c | 10,196$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Titans | 51c | 9,401$4,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590.5 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 49c | 7,356$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.44 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Texans | 49c | 3,870$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.15 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Texans | 49c | 3,700$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Texans | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 48c | 2,872$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.42 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Texans | 49c | 2,103$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.35 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Texans | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Titans | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Texans | 54c | 1,473$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.32 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Texans | 49c | 1,226$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.75 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Texans | 49c | 1,024$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.76 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Texans | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Texans | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Titans | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Titans | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Titans | 49c | 822$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.22 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…88f3backed Titans | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Texans | 50c | 601.2$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…3023backed Texans | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…f7cdbacked Texans | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Titans | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Texans | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Texans | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Titans | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Titans | 50c | 316.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…8e7dbacked Texans | 49c | 301.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Texans | 49c | 238$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…a072backed Texans | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Texans | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Titans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Texans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Texans | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Texans | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Titans | 49c | 154.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Texans | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Texans | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Titans | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Texans | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Titans | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Titans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Texans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Texans | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…edf8backed Texans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Texans | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Titans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Texans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Titans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Titans | 50c | 77.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Texans | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…a7fcbacked Texans | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Texans | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Texans | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…9774backed Texans | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Titans | 49c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Texans | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Texans | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Texans | 50c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Texans | 50c | 21.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…0908backed Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-8.5)Titans won
- Texans vs. TitansTexans won
- Texans vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineTitans won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 37.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.