NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Titans: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734a2add8e98d11d16377538938692a75a0117a5fd94ed6e5b202a83fc5202c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa85c…54b5backed Over | 50c | 11,200$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f82…5ba7backed Under | 50c | 11,200$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 6,555$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,156.63 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 48c | 5,555$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.4 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,841$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.7 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc38a…aff3backed Under | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Over | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,768$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,168$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.24 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 49c | 990.27$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.23 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 971.17$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 51c | 971.17$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…aed1backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 166.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…7376backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…e071backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…7393backed Under | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf99…639dbacked Under | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…92cebacked Under | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…627ebacked Under | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…3851backed Over | 51c | 102$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2cbdbacked Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…08c0backed Over | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…db8bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…59f7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c1…6f06backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd7…4e85backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…4806backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5474…ce40backed Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41b…dd9dbacked Under | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…1b9ebacked Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…9ffebacked Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…7c42backed Under | 51c | 97.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…f5a6backed Under | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…8ab2backed Under | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f80…e668backed Under | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…09f8backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…5366backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 58.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 44.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 52c | 35.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 37.5this page
- Spread: Texans (-5.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-8.5)Titans won
- Texans vs. TitansTexans won
- Texans vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineTitans won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.