NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ec19a5f73b885d1325cc0696a59e37c5b2b9e73bb71c471ad916bf6c934600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Texans, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Titans | 54c | 1,810$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.72 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…dd8fbacked Texans | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…665bbacked Titans | 55c | 1,800$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Texans | 45c | 1,507$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.4 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Texans | 46c | 1,493$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.9 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Texans | 48c | 628.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Titans | 52c | 539.54$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked Texans | 46c | 484.77$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Titans | 53c | 481$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.72 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Titans | 55c | 421$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.77 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Titans | 53c | 384.06$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.23 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Titans | 55c | 346.18$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Titans | 55c | 291$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Titans | 54c | 260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Titans | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Texans | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Titans | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Titans | 53c | 171.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 45c | 152.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Titans | 52c | 136$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Texans | 47c | 128.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Texans | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Texans | 48c | 104.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Texans | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Texans | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Titans | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Texans | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Titans | 55c | 97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe7…5fb9backed Texans | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…e5cabacked Titans | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…8559backed Texans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Texans | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Texans | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Titans | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Texans (-5.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Titans won
- Spread: Texans (-8.5)Titans won
- Texans vs. TitansTexans won
- Texans vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineTitans won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 37.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.