NFL · resolved market
Will the NFL ban the Tush Push?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860376e4ca23470a15f7aaa2b88ed1a7c91d6a6853c220f7289d71114c402c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 825.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 72c | 414.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 77 | 68.8%53 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 19c | 400$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 45c | 390.65$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 27c | 314.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 46c | 288.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 252$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed No | 66c | 221$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 28c | 209.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 25c | 202.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 186.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 32c | 145$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 6cpaid | +1,016%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 22c | 110.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 23c | 109.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 59c | 100.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 31c | 92.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…26f8backed Yes | 43c | 70.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 67.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 41c | 67.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…eba4backed No | 51c | 64.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 72c | 57.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked No | 62c | 45.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 74c | 23.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…4016backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…f5c8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.