NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe18ecdc4cfe5ea61bb885abfb5595eaf5f114ccc6b4f2e99b5b6a4866bd7bbd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Falcons, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3db…0b3cbacked Falcons | 52c | 57,000$29,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,640 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…1e9cbacked Panthers | 47c | 33,781$16,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,753.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Panthers | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Falcons | 51c | 18,366$9,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,364.3 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Falcons | 51c | 17,000$8,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,669.99 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 53c | 13,673$7,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,246.45 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Falcons | 53c | 11,942$6,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,277.06 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Panthers | 46c | 11,328$5,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,121.3 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Panthers | 48c | 10,181$4,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,294.29 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Panthers | 49c | 10,074$4,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,138.49 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers | 48c | 10,000$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Panthers | 48c | 8,888$4,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.76 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Panthers | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Panthers | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Panthers | 52c | 6,667$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.71 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Falcons | 48c | 3,015$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.2 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Falcons | 52c | 2,129$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Falcons | 48c | 2,101$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.45 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…991bbacked Falcons | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Panthers | 47c | 1,833$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.77 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Panthers | 48c | 1,495$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.45 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Panthers | 48c | 1,335$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.42 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Falcons | 52c | 1,114$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.11 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Panthers | 50c | 936.76$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.75 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Panthers | 46c | 826$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.6 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Falcons | 50c | 792.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Panthers | 49c | 610$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Panthers | 43c | 578.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.23 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Panthers | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Falcons | 57c | 421.65$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.67 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Falcons | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Falcons | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Panthers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Falcons | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Falcons | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Panthers | 49c | 384$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Falcons | 49c | 354.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Falcons | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Panthers | 48c | 290$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Falcons | 53c | 274$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Panthers | 49c | 247.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panthers | 48c | 244.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…8483backed Panthers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Panthers | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Panthers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Panthers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Falcons | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Panthers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Falcons | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Falcons | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Falcons | 49c | 182.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Panthers | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Falcons | 54c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Falcons | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Panthers | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Panthers | 33c | 132$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Panthers | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Falcons | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Panthers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Falcons | 55c | 101$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Panthers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Falcons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Panthers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Panthers | 49c | 98.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aad…18f4backed Falcons | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Panthers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Falcons | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Falcons | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Falcons | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Falcons | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Falcons | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Panthers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…049dbacked Panthers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9911…b38abacked Panthers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Panthers | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)this page
- Panthers vs. FalconsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 41.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 42.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.