NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0471138af7377639c3daa06834f82e58deb92613445d292d43398b10e31ab84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Over | 52c | 57,210$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,210.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 30,147$14,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,245.09 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 17,305$8,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,651.65 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 48c | 3,824$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.41 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 2,118$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.56 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 1,854$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.46 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Under | 50c | 1,216$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9e61backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…f47ebacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…6991backed Under | 49c | 900$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…9ef6backed Over | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 47c | 894$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.18 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 570$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 243.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Over | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -9.4wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Over | 52c | 25.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 41.5this page
- Panthers vs. FalconsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 42.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.