NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9185bbfe0298fadcde6316e2ca50aa2ea00610baaffe7ac95398e74ee8875a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Over | 52c | 18,623$9,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,951.49 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 17,803$8,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,545.7 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 49c | 11,222$5,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,541.89 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.88 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 1,408$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.16 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 991.27$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.05 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 920$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.94 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 423$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.42 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Under | 54c | 278.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 50c | 199.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 186.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Under | 51c | 98.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Under | 51c | 47.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 36.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 30.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 29.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…544abacked Over | 52c | 29.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a6…7189backed Under | 49c | 29.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…2dfdbacked Over | 50c | 22.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 42.5this page
- Panthers vs. FalconsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 41.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Falcons (-4.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.