TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Panthers vs. Falcons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Panthers, Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,367,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,484,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,367,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 563 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Falcons61c83,875$51,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,390.9875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Falcons65c82,017$53,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,311.0544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Falcons79c71,860$56,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,571.2130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Falcons65c50,627$32,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,907.866459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Panthers35c50,000$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,499.816836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Panthers35c45,000$15,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,249.945236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Panthers76c43,829$33,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,634.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Falcons65c42,608$27,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,695.133268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Panthers31c38,649$12,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,648.723432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xca36…1e9cbacked Panthers35c35,000$12,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,749.962653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Falcons65c26,808$17,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,297.9986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Panthers35c25,000$8,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,25019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Panthers46c22,154$10,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,013.453056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Falcons67c20,334$13,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,623.853345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed Panthers34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,199.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Falcons68c19,151$13,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,021.4847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Falcons0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Falcons51c16,696$8,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,487.5619551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Panthers41c16,023$6,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,532.116245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Falcons0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164515.6%7 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+931.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Falcons66c15,152$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Panthers36c15,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6004944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Panthers49c15,000$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6508946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Panthers34c14,213$4,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,449.4320755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Panthers33c12,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,040955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Panthers36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,400922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Falcons66c9,624$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,305.553351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Falcons41c8,533$3,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,537.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Panthers34c8,225$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,428.8113843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Falcons62c7,645$4,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,737.9420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers32c7,500$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Falcons64c7,255$4,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6431,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Falcons66c7,084$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,675.4753253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Falcons56c6,639$3,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,724.4173651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Panthers36c6,250$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Panthers33c6,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0208845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Falcons55c5,581$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0787259.7%43 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Falcons60c5,184$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.4131056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Falcons41c5,103$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.9650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Panthers18c5,000$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.4424053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed Falcons50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Panthers32c4,896$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,318.0926547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Falcons64c4,745$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.5114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Panthers11c4,704$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,183.19156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Falcons65c4,592$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00054451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf9…5d85backed Falcons66c4,545$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Falcons79c4,071$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.913043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Falcons40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6002941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Panthers34c4,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.9765048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Panthers45c3,863$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.7764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Falcons13c3,783$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.4810026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons64c3,735$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.41,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Falcons53c3,652$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.2331848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Panthers11c3,645$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.182540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Falcons29c3,491$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.4613065.4%85 W · 45 L+17.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Panthers24c3,429$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.424540%18 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Panthers35c3,350$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,177.57732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Falcons66c3,345$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.2312744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Falcons60c3,233$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.892040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3db…0b3cbacked Panthers36c3,001$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Falcons28c3,000$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83514926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Panthers62c2,986$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Panthers36c2,918$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.5514945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Panthers42c2,818$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.6947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Falcons68c2,817$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.5614641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe018…a3bbbacked Panthers36c2,776$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+144.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Panthers32c2,728$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.273748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Falcons48c2,678$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.2928151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Falcons53c2,641$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecd3…4285backed Falcons64c2,571$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Panthers56c2,512$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.68850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Panthers43c2,400$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3686338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Falcons1c2,324$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.244311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…2a60backed Panthers31c2,098$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.7310042%42 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Panthers11c2,071$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84417144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Falcons10c2,040$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.518044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Falcons57c2,034$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.126960.9%42 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Panthers31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Panthers36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2801747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Panthers12c2,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7708035%28 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Falcons62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Panthers33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9811452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Panthers36c2,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.9715044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Panthers35c2,000$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.487050%35 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Falcons59c1,968$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.142853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Falcons60c1,962$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.1323244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Falcons65c1,903$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.0614443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Panthers56c1,873$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.2468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb560…60d6backed Falcons64c1,856$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.11050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Panthers39c1,774$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.5116254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd17…ba18backed Falcons65c1,667$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c62…8747backed Panthers36c1,667$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Panthers34c1,654$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.7423850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858c…c479backed Panthers54c1,642$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Panthers25c1,605$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.2118744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Panthers19c1,579$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.9510648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Falcons65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Falcons65c1,537$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.1631854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88c7…9012backed Falcons60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Falcons64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.976955.1%38 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.