NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63cc7bd3260048fa741fb5e21b6c126f274fcdb785ed218c316f3ce7c20ce17f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Giants | 45c | 4,388$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.4 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 55c | 3,979$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.75 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bears | 54c | 1,604$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.66 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Giants | 46c | 1,100$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 53c | 1,096$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.97 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Giants | 46c | 744.36$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.66 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Bears | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bears | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 46c | 500$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.18 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Giants | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Giants | 47c | 428$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Giants | 45c | 367$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…fdf4backed Giants | 44c | 325$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 45c | 322.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 46c | 267.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Bears | 54c | 221$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Bears | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Bears | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bears | 53c | 142.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 45c | 139.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Giants | 48c | 136$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…e8f5backed Bears | 56c | 118$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Giants | 50c | 110.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 53c | 110.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Giants | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…b981backed Bears | 56c | 106$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…2babbacked Bears | 56c | 101$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Bears | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Bears | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 54c | 77.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 54c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Bears | 54c | 46.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Giants | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Giants | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Bears | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e936backed Bears | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bears | 54c | 23.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…0369backed Bears | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…433fbacked Bears | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)this page
- Giants vs. BearsBears won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Under won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.